Felicia Chou
July 22, 2026
Climate risk could shape future World Cup hosting in the US
Using our climate risk tool HazAtlas, Ramboll evaluated the conditions for holding the 2038 World Cup in the US, and the results are more than just sweaty – they could be dangerous. Stadiums, schools, and other infrastructure owners can start planning upgrades now to adapt to our new normal.
Contact our expert
Cassie Greer
Consultant
As the World Cup draws to a close, new analysis from Ramboll examines what climate conditions could look like in 2038, when the US is eligible to host again, revealing a future where rising heat and weather disruptions may significantly reshape how global tournaments are planned and delivered.
“By the time the 2038 hosting window rolls around, we’re looking at a climate reality where players and fans in New York could be sweating it out in a staggering 116°F feel-like temperature,” said Cassie Greer, meteorologist and consultant at Ramboll. “When you combine rising air temperatures with humidity and sun exposure, those compounded conditions create environments that could warrant additional stadium upgrades and mitigation measures for player and audience safety.”
Using our HazAtlas platform, an advanced climate risk platform that translates high-resolution environmental data into actionable insights for infrastructure, asset management, and operational planning, Ramboll analyzed climate risks across multiple US stadium locations, comparing historical conditions with projections for the next hosting window. The findings point to a steady increase in extreme heat, higher humidity-driven stress on players, and persistent risks from severe weather events.
The analysis uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SSP3-7.0 pathway, a high-emissions scenario that provides a realistic stress test for long-term planning. Rather than relying on broad climate averages, HazAtlas translates environmental data into operational indicators such as Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), the number of hot days exceeding 86°F, and the probability of lightning-related disruptions – all critical variables for player safety, fan experience, and broadcast continuity.
Wet-bulb conditions pose a critical risk to players because they limit the body’s ability to cool itself through sweating. This was an issue in this year’s tournament and led to match adjustments due to elevated heat and humidity levels pushing conditions closer to thresholds that can trigger fatigue, heat stress, and potential health concerns.
Projections
Projections
1 / 3
NY–NJ stadium projections highlight increasing heat exposure, extreme temperature days, and lightning-related disruption risk by 2038.
2 / 3
Kansas City stadium analysis shows rising WBGT and a sharp increase in hot days, indicating heightened heat-related risk.
3 / 3
San Francisco Bay Area stadium shows moderate but steadily increasing heat exposure and hot-day frequency.
NY–NJ stadium projections highlight increasing heat exposure, extreme temperature days, and lightning-related disruption risk by 2038.
Kansas City stadium analysis shows rising WBGT and a sharp increase in hot days, indicating heightened heat-related risk.
San Francisco Bay Area stadium shows moderate but steadily increasing heat exposure and hot-day frequency.
1 / 3
NY–NJ stadium projections highlight increasing heat exposure, extreme temperature days, and lightning-related disruption risk by 2038.
In the New York–New Jersey stadium region, projections show the hottest summer days increasing from approximately 96°F to 106°F by 2038, accompanied by as many as 65 days per year exceeding 86°F. WBGT levels during peak tournament months are also expected to rise from 84.1°F to 84.9°F, approaching the 89.6°F threshold at which FIFPRO recommends match adjustments to protect player health. At the same time, a roughly 15% daily probability of lightning within an 8-mile radius during June and July introduces an ongoing risk of FIFA-mandated match suspensions.
Similar patterns are emerging across other US host environments. In central markets such as Kansas City, the ongoing Chiefs and Royals stadium rebuild discussions are a reminder that climate resilience is increasingly part of the infrastructure conversation. Understanding how heat, severe weather, and changing climate conditions may affect operations, fan experience, and facility performance can help ensure today's stadium investments remain successful for decades to come.
Even in historically moderate regions such as the San Francisco Bay Area, the number of extreme heat days is projected to rise significantly, underscoring that no major host city is immune to shifting climate conditions.
These trends highlight how climate risk is becoming a defining factor in the future of global sports hosting. Beyond traditional considerations such as stadium capacity and transportation access, host cities may increasingly be evaluated on their ability to manage heat exposure, ensure grid reliability during peak demand, and maintain flexible scheduling in the face of weather-related disruptions.
While this analysis focuses on stadium conditions, the implications extend far beyond sports venues. The same HazAtlas modeling can be applied across critical infrastructure systems, from power grids and transportation networks to urban development and emergency planning, helping cities understand how climate hazards translate into real-world operational risk. By linking atmospheric data with asset-level impacts, Ramboll’s approach enables more resilient long-term planning, supporting smarter investments and ensuring that infrastructure, communities, and major global events can adapt to a rapidly changing climate.
Want to know more?
Felicia Chou
Public Relations and Media Outreach Mgr
+1 703-516-2313
Cassie Greer
Consultant